Subscription businesses lose revenue before cancellation. No one systematically recovers it. Applies across fitness, SaaS, education, utilities.
Content is created, attention captured elsewhere. Businesses sitting on event and content assets with no distribution or data layer.
Infrastructure industries quote on intuition. Consistent estimation logic compressed into a system creates workflow lock-in and proprietary data.
Organisations make inconsistent decisions because they lack structured frameworks. Training market remains shallow. Institutional tools absent.
Sectors facing skills shortages where systematised delivery can replace specialist labour. Early signal, needs more data.
Regulatory burden creating recurring cost with no value creation. Compression opportunity if logic can be systematised. Too early to score.
| Product / Idea | Theme | Stage | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|
JVP — Event Engine Attention Infrastructure / Video | Attention Infrastructure | In Portfolio | Monitor → Subscription offer |
Simon Smith — Revenue Control Behavioural churn recovery | Revenue Leakage Recovery | In Sprint | Day 14 kill decision |
Pilot 8T — Cable Estimation Quote-grade estimation engine | Estimation Under Uncertainty | Testing | Demand validation → pricing |
JVP — Video ROI Platform Attribution + benchmarking | Attention Infrastructure | Test Queue | After Event Engine proves |
JVP — Video-as-a-Service Subscription delivery model | Attention Infrastructure | Test Queue | After Event Engine proves |
SaaS Churn Recovery Export of Simon Smith model | Revenue Leakage Recovery | Signal | Await sprint validation |
KDE Licensing Institutional decision framework | Decision Quality | Watching | Score after workshops scale |
Labour Arbitrage — TBC 5 signals, no product yet | Labour Arbitrage Windows | Watching | Needs 3+ more signals |
Do not overcomplicate the math. The output is a decision category — not a score to optimise around.
| EV Profile | Decision | What It Means | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low × Any ÷ High | Kill | Upside too low or effort too high. | Remove immediately |
| Medium × Low ÷ Low | Test | Uncertain but cheap to validate. | 14-day kill test |
| High × Medium ÷ Low | Prioritise | Strong asymmetry. Don’t let it sit. | Advance to execution |
| Extreme × High ÷ Low | Allocate | Capital-grade. Validated. Deploy. | Capital decision now |
Raw observation enters Signal Log. Weighted by type. No evaluation yet.
6 Lenses scored. Kill threshold applied. Below 3.0 → removed immediately.
Upside × Probability ÷ Effort. Placed on allocation board. Decision category assigned.
Kill criteria defined upfront. 14-day execution window. Three metrics only.
Sprint survives → enters portfolio as an active bet. Capital conversation opens.
All four conditions met. Equity structure confirmed. Capital moves.
Three slots maximum. A fourth cannot enter until one is killed, exited, or scaled.
A bet that hits its kill condition is removed within 24 hours. No override.
A freed slot is reassigned within one week. Dead time is wasted optionality.
Only bounded downside and disproportionate upside qualify. Symmetric bets do not belong here.
Every week. Weights adjusted. Positions re-evaluated against current data.
Every Monday: review all active bets. Adjust weight, confidence, or horizon. If a position no longer meets the asymmetry test — kill it.